[Salon] Seperatists in South Ossetia Motion Toward Russian Annexation

[Chas Freeman <cwfresidence@gmail.com>]

https://www.caspianpolicy.org/research/security-and-politics-program-spp/seperatists-in-south-ossetia-motion-toward-russian-annexation

April 15, 2022

CPC | Seperatists in South Ossetia Motion Toward Russian Annexation

Abkhazia and South Ossetia while Russia is busy in Ukraine have so far been rebuffed, with Georgian authorities seeking to avoid provoking Moscow and to maintain the fragile ceasefire. At the same time, Russian annexation of South Ossetia would aggravate the already deeply tense relations between Moscow and Tbilisi with no demonstrable gain for Russia. Moscow, afterall, already effectively exercises control over the area given its troops on the ground and due to South Ossetia’s complete political and economic dependence on Russian support.Abkhazia, the second Russian-backed separatist state on internationally-recognized Georgian territory, has previously motioned towards deepening integration with Russia, precipitating what some analysts consider a slow-motion process of annexation. In the wake of Bibilov’s announcement, the head of the security council of Abkhazia cast doubt on any prospect for Abkhazia’s annexation into Russia, but offered support to South Ossetia’s ambitions of Russian union. Abkhazia possesses a more competitive political system than South Ossetia as well as a more autonomous military apparatus. In 2020, elections in Abkhazia removed a more overtly pro-Russian political establishment from power in Sukhumi. The Abkhaz opposition, who lost power in 2020, have openly called for a union state among Abkhazia, Belarus, and Russia. Bibilov’s call for for two referenda — one for annexation into Russia and a follow-up for the unification with the Republic of North Ossetia-Alania, a federal subject of Russia directly to its north — underline the more confused reality regarding where annexation into Russia and Ossetian unionism remain.